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From Ultima Markets

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What is the Fed’s Next Move After Jackson Hole? 

As a mouthpiece of the Fed, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium always attracts the eyeballs of numerous investors. Considering the current turbulent global economic situation, this year’s meeting is undoubtedly eye-catching. The three-day symposium officially ended in August, and the speeches of renowned financial names captured the world’s attention. 

The Debate Between Hawks and Doves Heating up at ECB 

The ECB Debate: Hawks vs. Doves – Charting a Path Through Uncertainty Since July 2022, interest rates in the euro area have increased by 4.25 percentage points. But as signs of recession in the region become increasingly apparent, with annual price growth now at half its peak of 10.6%, disagreements have emerged within the ECB […]

9.13 Commodity Daily Brent Oil 

Focus on Brent Oil today.  Fundamentally, with OPEC and EIA predicting that production cuts will tighten the market in the coming months, Brent crude oil has finally returned to above $90. The International Energy Agency will also release its monthly report today, which is expected to provide more clues to market conditions. The market focuses […]

Fewer S&P 500 Companies Citing “Inflation” in 2Q23 Conference Calls 

Through Document Search, FactSet searched for the term “inflation” in the conference call transcripts of all the S&P 500 companies that conducted earnings conference calls from June 15 through September 7. Of these companies, 296 cited the term “inflation” during their earnings calls for the second quarter. This is the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “inflation” on earnings calls going back to Q2 2021 (221).

9.12 FX Daily GBP/USD 

UK is to release its latest August unemployment data on Tuesday. The previous PMI final value data for the manufacturing industry confirmed a downward trend, shrinking for the sixth consecutive month. If the job market shows weakness as well, although inflationary pressure decreases, the outlook for the UK economy may be interpreted as sluggish by the market. 

The Surreal Saga of UK Government’s Skyrocketing Debt

The UK’s Mounting Debt Crisis UK government debt has soared more than 40% since the Covid-19 outbreak in March 2020, reaching nearly 2.6 trillion pounds ($3.3 trillion), the highest level since the early 2020s and about the same as the country’s annual gross domestic product. Inflation-Linked Debt: A Troubling Reality Although some developed countries, for […]

9.8 Metal Daily Copper

Focus on Copper today.  Fundamentally, after the release of employment data and PMI data, metals are still under pressure due to potential secondary inflation risks in the United States. On the supply side, according to the latest statistics from the London Metal Exchange, copper inventories increased by 3,150 tons. The increase in inventories means that […]

The UK’s Interest Rate Odyssey: Understanding the Essentials

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Andrew Bailey) said at a Treasury Select Committee hearing on the 7th that the interest rate hike policy is close to the peak, and BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will make another decision on September 21.  

August ISM Surprise: A Perspective On Economic Fireworks

August Service ISM Surged, Heating up Concerns Over Inflation  The Institute for Supply Management released the ISM services index for August, which showed a recovery in business activity. The index unexpectedly rose to 54.5 from market expectations of 52.5, up from 52.7 in July and reaching a six-month peak. From the analysis of the service […]

9.7 Metal Daily XAU/USD 

Focus on XAU/USD today.  Fundamentally, yesterday the United States released ISM data on the service industry, just like the market outlook shared on Monday. The Fed is currently looking for data support. Consumption is one of the three economic carriages in the United States. The good performance of the ISM service industry PMI will greatly […]