Ultima Markets

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDX for SEP 26, 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• Fed continues to cut interest rates: Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November weighed on the dollar yesterday, although the dollar has now recovered. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September was lower than expected yesterday, indicating weak consumer confidence, especially in the labor market, sparking speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points. CME’s Fed Watch tool currently shows that the probability of a 50-basis point cut in November is 58%. 

• Dollar short positions plummeted: In two weeks, the broad speculative net short position of the US dollar fell from 150,000 to 50,000. The current market logic has changed. After the Fed cut interest rates, it means that the world has entered a loose cycle. Hot money is now more concerned about the economy’s fundamentals than the interest rate differential. Therefore, the current better advantage of the US economic fundamentals may re-dominate the foreign exchange market, and the current US dollar market trend is digesting the news of interest rate cuts this year. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

(US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• MACD: The momentum column began to rise, and the fast line is about to form a bullish signal. In addition, the indicator is about to form a bottom divergence with the exchange rate. Based on the current market price is in a volatile trend, the US dollar index has the probability of reversal at any time. 

• Resistance price: The US dollar index price is currently oscillating between the 100-integer mark and the alternative trend line. Before the US dollar index has an effective breakthrough, investors still need to focus on the investment idea of selling high and buying low. 

H1 Chart Insights 

(US Dollar Index H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, suggesting that the US dollar index price will enter a short-term adjustment during the current Asian session. It is worth noting that although the US dollar index price has a strong upward trend, it has not formed a top divergence pattern with the indicator. Be wary of the US dollar index price forming a top divergence after a false breakthrough after a rest. 

• Resistance price: The US dollar index price accelerated its rise and broke through the MA group, suggesting that the current trend is strong. However, the bulls who broke through the green 200-period MA twice before were eventually blocked from going down. At present, the exchange rate is facing resistance to the downward trend line again. If the exchange rate breaks through, it will return to the previous trend high of 100.923. 

Pivot Indicator 

(US Dollar Index M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 100.65, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 100.65, first target 101.05, second target 101.23; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 100.65, first target 100.52, second target 100.40. 

Conclusion 

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

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Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.