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Gold Falls on Dollar Strength, Fed in Focus
On Tuesday, gold slipped 0.25%, closing at $2646/ounces. This is mainly driven by the pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar and climbing Treasury yields as investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year with growing expectations of a gradual pace of rate cuts in 2025.
(XAUUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
Attention is also on the Fed’s updated economic projections and the dot plot, which could reshape expectations for the rate trajectory through 2025 and 2026. If the Fed going to be more hawkish or more dovish than what the markets are expecting right now. Because of Trump’s agenda, people are expecting the Fed to be more cautious in terms of being open to further rate cuts at this stage.
Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November, adding to warmer inflation readings in recent months and suggesting that the Fed could pause rate cuts in January. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut this week stand at 95%, but the chances of a reduction in January are just around 16%.
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