Weekly Market Outlook (March 31st – April 4th)

Trump disrupted the relatively quiet market last week by surprisingly announcing a 25% tariff on auto imports, reigniting trade tensions. This led to notable market reactions, with U.S. stock indices taking a hit later in the week, while gold surged to another all-time high.

In the currency market, major pairs saw limited movement, with the Japanese yen emerging as the biggest loser. Risk-sensitive currencies also weakened, yet the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable. This suggests that investors favored gold as a safe-haven asset over fiat currencies amid rising uncertainties.

Week Ahead: “Reciprocal Tariffs” Next?

Trump’s tariff policy remains a key market focus this week after last week’s auto tariff shock rattled global sentiment. With the announcement of Trump’s “Reciprocal Tariffs” expected this week, investors are likely to remain cautious about how a broader tariff plan could impact global trade.

The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs could keep markets on edge as traders assess the potential ripple effects across financial markets. Meanwhile, several key economic data releases are also expected to capture market attention.

RBA Monetary Policy (April 1^st)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates in February but ruled out consecutive cuts, emphasizing that future policy decisions will be guided by economic data. While no rate cut is expected this time, investors will closely watch the RBA’s policy guidance, especially given the heightened global trade uncertainty.

US ISM Purchasing Manager Index (April 1^st & 3^rd)

Last week, the S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI showed that economic activity remained strong, briefly boosting investor confidence and triggering a rebound in U.S. stocks. The ISM PMI report this week will provide further insights into the current state of the U.S. economy.

Non-farm Payroll & Employment Data (April 4^th)

The highly anticipated jobs report will be closely watched for insights into the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. A strong labor market could reinforce hawkish expectations for the Fed, potentially boosting the U.S. dollar.

However, investors should also monitor the unemployment rate and wage growth data, as these indicators provide a broader view of labor market strength.